Nancy Pelosi’s Taiwan Visit Triggers a Sharp & Perilous Shift in U.S.-China Relations
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan on August 2-3 has precipitated a fundamental and dangerous shift in U.S.-China relations. Pelosi is not solely responsible for this shift – trends in U.S.-China relations were trending downwards before she stepped foot on Taiwanese soil – but her visit there set in motion what seems to be an irreversible transformation of Beijing’s stance on Taiwan, U.S.-China relations, and the use of force in defending China’s core interests. The result of all this is sure to be a more fractious U.S.-China relationship and a much-increased risk of accidental or unintended military engagements in the Taiwan area.
Before Pelosi’s visit, U.S.-China relations were undeniably on a downward slide, but Presidents Joe Biden of the U.S. and Xi Jinping of China were nevertheless able to discuss possible areas of cooperation — including on climate change and health security — during their two-and-a-half hour call on July 28. And, while China was also conducting periodic military maneuvers on Taiwan’s periphery before her visit, these did not entail movements across the median line between China and Taiwan in the Taiwan Strait — an artificial but symbolically important boundary whose acknowledgement by China was a source of stability.
After Pelosi’s visit, however, China “cancelled” military-to-military consultations and “suspended” talks on climate change and other global perils. China’s military, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), launched eleven ballistic missiles into waters east, northeast, and southeast of Taiwan, and commenced aggressive combat maneuvers in the Taiwan Strait area, some involving flights by PLA warplanes across the median line into the Taiwanese side, vastly increasing military tensions in the area.
Many foreign observers, as well as Chinese and Taiwanese officials, described the before-and-after situation as representing a fundamental shift in Chinese policy. “Relations between China and the United States, already at a low before Ms. Pelosi’s visit, are now in a downward spiral,” the New York Times observed on August 4. Referring to China’s cancellation of those cooperative measures, the Times cited Amanda Hsiao, a senior analyst for China at the International Crisis Group. “In canceling all these exchanges … Beijing is really pulling away the last strings in an already threadbare relationship,” Ms. Hsiao said.
Chinese sources also indicated that a fundamental shift had occurred. The Global Times, a state-run nationalist tabloid, quoted an anonymous Chinese military expert in describing the drills as a “new beginning” for PLA activities around Taiwan, which would no longer be limited to their previous areas and would instead “regularly take place on Taiwan’s doorstep.”
In response to all this, the White House insisted that there had been no change in U.S. policy regarding Taiwan, and that the U.S. still adheres to the “one China” policy, which holds that China and Taiwan are both part of one country (“one China”). But Pelosi’s visit — the first by U.S. House Speaker since Newt Gingrich visited the island in 1997 (when China was much poorer and weaker) — was viewed by the Chinese as an expression of high-level repudiation by official Washington of the “one China” policy and its replacement by a “One China, one Taiwan” policy. This, accordingly, was said to justify a higher level of military action by China — intended both to warn Washington from moving any further in this direction and also to prepare Chinese forces for a possible blockade or invasion of Taiwan if these warnings go unheeded.
On August 8, Chinese Defense Ministry spokesman Wu Qian defended the cancellation of military consultations in retaliation for Pelosi’s visit, calling Beijing’s countermeasures a “necessary warning” to Washington. “We urge the U.S. side to respect China’s core interests and concern and abandon this illusion of using the Taiwan question to contain China,” Wu said in remarks carried by state broadcaster China Central Television (CCTV).
Chinese officials also indicated that they no longer viewed the median line in the Taiwan Strait as a legitimate boundary and that their large-scale exercises should be considered as preparation for actual combat, should such a move be deemed essential.
On August 7, CCTV reported that PLA warships would now “regularly conduct training” on the other side of the “so-called median line.” The report continued: “There are no so-called ‘Taiwanese territorial waters.’ Taiwan is part of China, and the Chinese navy sails in its own territorial waters.”
Regarding the purpose of the maneuvers, Maj. Gen. Meng Xiangqing, a professor of strategy at the National Defense University in Beijing, said on Chinese television that the target locations — on on Taiwan’s northern, eastern, and southern periphery — were chosen for their importance in a potential campaign to seal off Taiwan and repel foreign intervention. “This is the first time that the military will hold a joint military operation around all of Taiwan island,” he declared. “It should be said that although this is an exercise resembling actual combat, it can at any time turn into real combat.”
Indeed, many Western analysts noted that while the primary aim of the maneuvers, involving the deployment of numerous PLA warships and aircraft, were intended as much to intimidate Taiwan (and any countries, such as Japan and the United States, that might come to its aid if China blockaded or invaded the island) as to afford the PLA an opportunity to practice large-scale, complex combat operations.
For all of China’s military might, Paul McLeary and Lara Seligman wrote in Politico on August 5, the People’s Liberation Army has had limited real-world experience outside of highly-choreographed domestic military exercises. “That makes these quickly assembled exercises around Taiwan a critical test for Beijing,” they wrote. “Its ability to sustain those operations over time, if that’s what Beijing decides, will be a critical test for the military, and closely watched.”
Chinese military officials claimed they had concluded the Pelosi-related maneuvers on August 7, but that they would continue to conduct large-scale exercises in the areas around Taiwan, and that PLA forces would cross the median line in the Taiwan Strait on a regular basis. As documented in our tally of provocative maneuvers, the PLA has, in fact, continued to undertake major military maneuvers in the Taiwan Strait area with its planes often crossing the median line. On all of these occasions, the Taiwanese have deployed their own ships and planes in the area to ward off the Chinese intruders – an inherently risky operation.
Despite this increase in Chinese air and naval activity in the Taiwan Strait, the U.S. military has proclaimed that it will continue to send its own ships and planes into the area, increasing the risk of an accidental or unintended clash. John F. Kirby, the National Security Council spokesman, said on August 4 that the Department of Defense would resume “standard air and maritime transits through the Taiwan Strait in the next few weeks.” Contradicting Beijing’s claim that the Taiwan Strait is part of China’s internal waters, Colin H. Kahl, the undersecretary of defense for policy, told reporters, “We’ll … continue to fly, to sail and operate wherever international law allows us to do so, and that includes in the Taiwan Strait.”
Whatever her intent, Nancy Pelosi’s August 2-3 visit to Taiwan has served as the catalyst for a significant and dangerous shift in the military equation in the western Pacific, producing a higher risk of armed encounters between Chinese, Taiwanese, and U.S. forces. Given the catastrophic consequences of a full-scale conflict between these countries — not the least being a thermonuclear conflagration — it is incumbent upon leaders of all three countries to minimize the level of confrontation to the greatest degree possible. This means, first of all, that China should scale back its exercises on Taiwan’s periphery and refrain from crossing the median line, while the U.S. should refrain from sending ships and planes through the Taiwan Strait until military-to-military consultations between the two sides are resumed. Ultimately, the U.S. and China will have to agree on new guidelines for stable relations or our disagreements over Taiwan could ignite a major regional conflict.