Gaza and Ukraine Crises Have Implications for Taiwan
By Zhiqun Zhu
[Note: This Commentary first appeared at Think China on Oct. 23, 2023. To see the complete original text, click here]
The Israel-Hamas conflict reignited a hot spot in international security and aggravated [existing] problems facing the international community. Already, people in many countries have developed “war fatigue” as the Russia-Ukraine war drags on. Voices have grown louder in the US and other Western countries questioning why their governments continue to fund this disastrous war with no end in sight.
The emerging war fatigue and the twin crises in Ukraine and Gaza have implications for Taiwan. Will China take advantage of the current crises in Europe and the Middle East to attack Taiwan soon? Will the war fatigue translate into reduced support for Ukraine? Is the US commitment to support Taiwan reliable? Will the so-called "America skepticism" [i.e., lack of confidence in U.S. support] surge in Taiwan?
These questions are worthy of serious consideration, but the biggest lesson from conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza for cross-strait relations is that war must be avoided with utmost effort. The international community absolutely does not want another war in the Taiwan Strait.
US will treat conflict in the Taiwan Strait differently
Today, Taiwan has become strategically more valuable for the US due to US-China rivalry. Washington is fully aware that Beijing considers Taiwan its “core” national interest. Frankly speaking, the US can afford Ukraine’s failure or even let the conflict in the Middle East continue, but it will do everything possible to keep Taiwan separate from China. The US views China as the only country having the capability and intent to unseat its global dominance.
The claim by some US politicians that “stopping funding for Ukraine would be a death sentence for Taiwan” because a Russian victory could encourage China to launch an attack on Taiwan is mistaken, misleading and ill-advised. It is mistaken because it underestimates the strategic value of Taiwan to the US and the utility of the Taiwan card against China. It is misleading because it assumes that China’s attack on Taiwan is imminent and inevitable, when there is no indication that China will use force to unify with Taiwan soon.
Some people believe that China will be deterred from using force as long as the US keeps arming Taiwan. This ill-advised thinking misjudges Beijing’s determination and is actually counterproductive. The stronger US support for Taiwan and the more arms sales to Taiwan, the more likely Beijing will use force to achieve unification.
Washington must be prudent to balance its desire to support Taiwan and its commitment to “one China”. No matter how much the US wants to support democracy in Taiwan, it should not corner Beijing and make Beijing feel that the door to peaceful reunification is slammed shut. Keeping Taiwan permanently separate is unacceptable to Beijing just as it is unsustainable for Washington.
The wars in Ukraine and Gaza will have little impact on China's long-term goals; Beijing is likely to follow its own pace to promote gradual cross-strait integration. However, the PRC leadership must realize that conditions for unification are lacking and most Taiwanese do not want to join China under the current political system. Beijing faces an uphill battle and must be more creative in attracting the Taiwanese.
Beijing's stated long-term goal of achieving peaceful reunification with Taiwan remains unchanged so far. If unprovoked, Beijing is unlikely to use force against Taiwan. Those who care about Taiwan’s future should work hard to promote dialogue and peace across the Taiwan Strait instead of unnecessarily provoking Beijing and thus triggering a war. They should also urge the new leader who wins the January 2024 election in Taiwan to be realistic and return to the “one China” based foundation for cross-strait exchanges.